In this episode, I introduce something called The Near-Miss which is used to exploit the way problem gamblers think. From slot machines to scratch off tickets, the near-miss is built into the design of gambling games in order to keep gamblers gambling, even when they are losing.
LINKS TO ARTICLES
The Near-Miss Effect by Jonan Lehrer
The Psychology of the Near Miss by R.L. Reid
Why Your Brain Loves Near-Misses in Gambling by Sharon Begley
This is episode 6 of the Gambling Still Sucks podcast. In this episode, we’re going to discuss something called the near miss and how knowing about it may help you to stop gambling.
Hey there and welcome to the Gambling Still Sucks podcast. My name is Jamie. I am a compulsive gambler and I’m also the host of this show. The last day I gambled was July 15th of 2010. In the last episode, we talked about dealing with gambling thoughts and urges. In this episode, I wanted to dive into something that the gambling or gaming industry is doing to us without us even realizing it. For me, I didn’t know about it at first, but once I did, it opened my eyes and really let me see the games in a completely different light. I hope it does the same for you.
What I’m talking about is called the near miss. There are several ways people describe it, but the near miss effect is basically that moment when you’re playing your game of choice—maybe a slot machine—and you almost win. Think of all those times you got three cherries, but needed four to win the jackpot. I wasn’t a slot machine player, but I’m sure you can think of those moments when you were so close to hitting the big win. For me with poker, it was the times when I was one card away from hitting a royal flush or when the last card came out, and my opponent pulled a lucky card, one of the only two in the deck that could beat me.
Think back to those moments where you almost won. You were so close. Now, think of what that did to your brain. If you were like me, it got you fired up, maybe a little mad, but it also made you feel like you had almost won the hand. For me in poker, I got my money in with the odds in my favor, and then I lost—but somehow, I was still okay with that. I imagine for slot machines, you see the symbols line up almost perfectly, and it makes you think, “I was so close! I almost hit it.”
Another place you see the near miss effect is with scratch-off tickets. I’ve never bought a scratch-off ticket that was just a complete loser. Usually, you scratch it off and see amounts like “$100,000, $5, $5, $100,000,” and you think, “I just need one more to win.” You scratch off the rest, and they don’t match, but you still feel like you were close. This near-miss experience taps into something deeper in our brains.
There’s been a lot of research on this near-miss situation and what it does to our brains, particularly for compulsive gamblers. Studies have shown that in compulsive gamblers, the near-miss registers almost as highly on our brain’s reward system as an actual win does. When we see that we were just one step away from a big win, our brains treat it differently than just a simple loss. The reality is, you either win or you lose, but our brains treat that near-miss differently, which fires off those reward centers, increasing dopamine and activating those pleasure pathways.
So, what does the gaming industry do with this knowledge? They design games that consistently have near misses. If you’ve ever bought a scratch-off ticket, you know they never give you just random, unmatched symbols. You always get something close—enough to make you think you almost had it. The same goes for slot machines, which are programmed to generate these near misses that keep you feeling like you’re just one spin away from hitting it big. These near-misses reward our brains in almost the same way as a win, even though, in reality, we lost.
This difference in how our brains react to near-misses compared to non-compulsive gamblers is significant. People who don’t have a gambling problem will see a near-miss and just think, “Well, I lost.” Compulsive gamblers, however, see it and think, “I almost won.” And that drives us to keep playing.
I’ll link some studies in the show notes because I think it’s important to understand what’s happening here. Knowledge is power. When you understand that these near-misses are purposely designed to keep you playing, you can start to see through the illusion. You can say, “I know what you’re trying to do, but it’s not going to work on me.” This awareness is empowering.
I’m sure, if you’re like me, you can look back and remember those times you almost won. Maybe you were just one card away from a royal flush or one symbol away from a jackpot. And if you look closely, you’ll probably realize that these near-misses got you to gamble even more afterward. You were so close to winning—you believed you could hit it next time. The industry thrives on that belief, that hope that next time will be different, that the big win is just around the corner.
I wanted to do this episode to highlight the fact that these games are designed to manipulate us, to prey on how our brains work. They use these techniques to keep us coming back. I want you to know what they’re doing so you can recognize it and say, “Not this time.”
If this has opened your eyes, that’s great. I’m sure you can look back at specific moments and say, “Yeah, I remember that time I almost hit it.” Those near-misses are triggers that keep us stuck in the cycle. I hope this knowledge will help you break that cycle and make it easier to live a gambling-free life in recovery.
That wraps up this episode of the Gambling Still Sucks podcast. If you have any interesting near-miss experiences, feel free to share them with me. I think recognizing these moments is an important step in recovery. Thanks for listening, and I will see you in the next episode.
Before you go, I want to remind you of a few important things. First of all, problem gambling is a treatable disorder. There is no scientific evidence to suggest that it is a terminal condition that will plague you for the rest of your life. While it may feel overwhelming in the moment, recovery is possible with the right support and treatment.
Secondly, help is available. Many states in the U.S. offer free counseling and therapy for both gamblers and their family members. To start finding help, you can call the hotline number 1-800-522-4700. This number is run by the National Council on Problem Gambling and covers all 50 states. They can help guide you toward resources in your area. There are also similar hotlines available worldwide—just search for gambling help or a gambling hotline in your local area.
In addition to hotlines, there are numerous online resources where you can find support and information. Visit gamblingstillsucks.com/help, where I’ll list various support options, forums, and other helpful resources. I’ll continue to add to this list as I find new, valuable resources for anyone struggling with gambling.
As a disclaimer, this podcast does not provide legal or medical advice. I am not a doctor, therapist, or attorney—just a guy who had a gambling problem. While I’ll share insights into what has worked for me, it’s important to seek professional help from a lawyer, doctor, or therapist to help deal with your gambling problem. The information discussed here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as professional advice.
The music for this podcast is “Something Elated” by Broke for Free and is licensed under the Creative Commons.